The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


10 March 2012

So What Has This Got To Do With My Roto Team AUCTION?

[On the road from Voss to Stalheim, Hardanger ...[On the road from Voss to Stalheim, Hardanger Fjord, Norway] (LOC) (Photo credit: The Library of Congress)It's a Wonderful Life - A Familiar HouseIt's a Wonderful Life - A Familiar House (Photo credit: geminicollisionworks)Mets NL team photo smallImage via WikipediaTravers in his most memorable role, as Clarenc...Image via WikipediaEnglish: Screenshot of Jimmy Stewart and Donna...Image via WikipediaIt's a Wonderful LifeImage via WikipediaIt's a Wonderful LifeIt's a Wonderful Life (Image via RottenTomatoes.com)David Brooks:
  • We have a bias toward things that are familiar and especially to those things that were familiar when life was new: the old house, the old hometown, the people, smells and sounds we knew when we were young.
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  • ...There’s a core American debate between “On the Road” and “It’s a Wonderful Life.”

  • “On the Road” suggests that happiness is to be found through freedom, wandering and autonomy.

  • “It’s a Wonderful Life” suggests that happiness is found in the lifelong attachments that precede choice. It suggests that restraints can actually be blessings because they lead to connections that are deeper than temporary self-interest

  • The happiness research suggests that “It’s a Wonderful Life” is correct and “On the Road” is an illusion.

Click here for entire article. Warning: Brooks is using the analogy to justify his abiding love for the Mets. We like to think of the choices during our Roto Auction-- when you can buy any player before you run out of money.
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