The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


02 March 2012

To Be Or Not To Be A Price Enforcer On Roto Auction Day?

George Patton WindowGeorge Patton Window (Photo credit: Nevada Tumbleweed (Mark Holloway))Roy HalladayImage via WikipediaRoy HalladayImage via WikipediaRoy "Doc" HalladayImage via WikipediaCover of "Patton [Blu-ray]"Cover of Patton [Blu-ray]

Can you price enforce above your max bid, if that means you may have to eat that high production player and reduce your quality elsewhere?

How about this:
In a keeper league, the bid limit for Halladay could be $40 for one team and $50 for another, even if both owners are expecting exactly the same stats.

Ah - but if it's down to those two left bidding on Halladay - what does the bid limit become for team A ($40 bid limit)? Because if he keeps his limit at $40, he's just handed team B an additional 9 bucks in the auction. {Texpope - Pattonandcompany Comments}

Issue then
Well, one, you won't know that other person's bid limit. Two, the question is whether you want to overpay or not. {Toz}

One View:

{EugeneFreed over in Patton and Company Comments says} max bids are for a reason. If someone else has a higher max on a player, that's the reason he gets the player. Going meta and price enforcing to a perceived max bid for someone else, well, that could be...suicide depending on when in the auction it is and what the result is.

The team that calculates he could pay Halladay $50 also knows that other teams bid limits are going to top out at $40, so he's going to assign a bid limit of $43 (or whatever) so that he doesn't shortchange himself elsewhere. If someone improbably enforces up to the high 40s he'll have to make an adjustment, but that early in the draft teams aren't going to push too hard. {Renown Roto Expert - Rotoman} 

Another view:
I know when I set my bid limits, my paper has the limit. My brain has the strategy... {Toz}
{6-4-3 Assist to A Special Correspondent who emailed us the Patton Blog Comments}
We couldn't say and you might very well think that Patton and Company has excellent Roto info for free after registration, but we cannot comment, though those we trust are enthusiastic supporters. Click here to go to Patton and Company to register.


Click here for over 90 Auction Tactics articles from a multitude of sources. 

 Advanced Fantasy Baseball weighed in:
Let someone else be the bargain police if they want to. There is no percentage in it for you.
But what if you're in man-love with the nominated player or simply need those categories of production or....

Alas, To Be Or Not To Be? That is the question...

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