The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


01 April 2012

Playing Long Roto Season As If Attacking A Long Par 5 In Golf

Dan Marino quarterbacks the Pitt Panthers of t...Dan Marino quarterbacks the Pitt Panthers of the University of Pittsburgh in a football game at Pitt Stadium against the Cincinnati Bearcats on October 13, 1979. Pitt won the game 35-0. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)David Feherty (with Tiger Woods)David Feherty (with Tiger Woods) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)Publicity photo of golfer Sam Snead for his AB...Publicity photo of golfer Sam Snead for his ABC television program The Sam Snead Golf Show. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)Seve Ballesteros, Spanish golferSeve Ballesteros, Spanish golfer (Photo credit: Wikipedia)A golf ball.A golf ball. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)Four shots for a birdie to win the par 5 hole:

  1. The Tee shot: Drafting Counting Statistics. ''Swing hard, in case you hit it.'' Dan Marino
  2. The Approach shot: Identifying break through candidates. Sam Snead's entire philosophy was centered on the second (or approach) shot, because that's where the best players will show what they can do. He called them the 'scoring shots'.
  3. The Short Iron approach: Manipulating cumulative stats at the All Star break. "That's a great shot. Especially with that swing." - David Feherty, CBS and Golf Channel announcer.
  4. The Putt: Poise and composure is the key. "The three things I fear most in golf are lightning, Ben Hogan and a downhill putt." - Sam Snead
"I miss. I miss. I miss. I make.'' Seve Ballesteros describing his putt on the 16th at Augusta in 1988




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