The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


03 April 2012

The Next Hot Roto Power/Speed Prospect

A Rabbit on the Base PathsA Rabbit on the Base Paths (Photo credit: congvo)stolen basestolen base (Photo credit: WhatDaveSees)group photo 4group photo 4 (Photo credit: iscari0t)Curtis Granderson slides into second base for ...Curtis Granderson slides into second base for his 20th stolen base of the 2007 season, making him the third player in mlb history to have 20 doubles, triples, home runs and 20 stolen bases in single season. Deutsch: Curtis Granderson bei seiner zwanzigsten Stolen Base der MLB-Saison 2007. Damit wurde er erst zum dritten Spieler der MLB, dem in einer Saison jeweils zwanzig Doubles, Triples, Home Runs Stolen Bases gelangen (Photo credit: Wikipedia)Rickey Henderson steals third base for the New...Rickey Henderson steals third base for the New York Yankees under the tag of Seattle Mariners Third baseman Jim Presley in the first game of a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium on August 19, 1988. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
  • So let’s say I was to bring you a prospect with the following stats from the 2011 season. .299 AVG in 131 games.

  • .418 OBP. .477 SLG. .896 OPS.

  • Impressed yet? How about I add in 18 home runs. 20 doubles. 57 RBIs. Getting more excited?

  • Ok…I will throw in 117 runs scored and 88 walks.

  • Now I know that I really have your interest. So here is the clincher: 62 stolen bases. 62 steals in 76 tries.

  • So who are we talking about? Not Anthony Gose. Not Billy Hamilton. We have to go West- all the way to Seattle.

  • The M’s have themselves a centerfield prospect with all the tools. Solid D, speed and my favorite offensive weapons- power and patience. This kid can do it all.
Click here for hitter ID and complete article.

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