The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


10 June 2011

Power Rankings

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 8: Member of the Hall of F...Image by Getty Images via @daylife
(Records through Wednesday’s games.)
Philadelphia 1. Philadelphia Phillies (37-25; Previous: 2) – Plaxico Burress leaves prison wearing retro Phillies cap, hands it to a passing Lenny Dykstra at guard gate.

Boston 2. Boston Red Sox (35-26; Previous: 5) – Francona says Matsuzaka absolutely will not require surgery. Town now sort of hoping he sides with Harold Camping in October.

St. Louis 3. St. Louis Cardinals (37-26; Previous: 4) – Not that the Cards are pessimistic about the coming offseason or anything, but in this week’s draft they selected 28 first basemen.

New York 4. New York Yankees (33-26; Previous: 6) – Yanks felt Red Sox breath on their necks. Knew it was them because it smelled a little chowdery, a little Salty.

Milwaukee 5. Milwaukee Brewers (35-27; Previous: 10) – Brewers win their 1,000th National League game. Get there just ahead of Cubs.

Cleveland 6. Cleveland Indians (34-26; Previous: 1) – Indians put new twist on throwback games – wear uniform of 2011, play like it’s 1991.

San Francisco 7. San Francisco Giants (35-27; Previous: 7) – Team issues sorry rationalization on behalf of Sabean, not to be confused with apology, heartfelt apology, begrudging apology, hollow apology or non-apology apology.

Atlanta 8. Atlanta Braves (34-28; Previous: 8) – McCann passes Posey in All-Star voting, braces for Sabean dress-down.

Texas 9. Texas Rangers (35-28; Previous: 11) – Rangers reportedly one of nine teams in violation of debt rule, have done great job of fighting off creditors with claws, antlers.

Detroit 10. Detroit Tigers (33-28; Previous: 14) – Cranky Leyland yells at kids to get off his lawn, later told those were the Twins taking batting practice.

Click here for the remainder of the rankings.
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