The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


10 June 2011

INJURIES - UPON FURTHER EXAMINATION | RotoExperts

CINCINNATI, OH - MAY 19:  Pedro Alvarez #24 of...Image by Getty Images via @daylife

 

FANTASY BASEBALL: UPON FURTHER EXAMINATION

Author: Dr. Roto, Staff Writer

Highlights: Dr. Roto thinks that Allen Craig will take full opportunity of his extended “Holliday.”


  • 15 Day Holliday:
The St. Louis Cardinals finally did what most fantasy owners were hoping they would do last week. They placed star OF Matt Holliday on the DL retroactive to June 1 with a strained quad. Holliday had initially tried to rest the quad for a few days and then tried some pinch hitting, but the pain did not subside and he was placed on the DL. This is a tough blow, as Holliday was leading the NL with a .342 BA. The Cardinals are expressing hope that Holliday will be able to come off the DL as soon as his 15 days are up. Dr. Roto recommends that Fantasy owners be careful with Holliday. Expect him to come back in mid-June, but temper any expectations of Holliday stealing 10 bases or so like he seems to do every season. The Cards need his bat in the lineup and are willing to sacrifice his speed for his pop.
All Fantasy owners should take a closer look at Allen Craig. In 2009, Craig hit 26 HR in Triple -A to go along with 83 RBIs. He has been playing well thus far this season, hitting .337 with four HRs. Cards manager Tony LaRussa has been so happy with Craig’s offense that he has been trying him out at second base to get his bat in the lineup (Craig currently has eight games played at 2B). Look for Craig to pick up the slack in Holliday’s absence, with him taking over for Skip Schumacher once Holliday is back in the lineup every day.
  • Dr. Roto’s Orders: Be patient while Holliday heals from his quad injury. Pick up Allen Craig now if he is available in your leagues.
Speaking of Quads:
  • Pedro Alvarez is eligible to come off the DL on June 3, but Dr. Roto would be surprised to see him activated as soon as he is eligible. Alvarez is able to hit and run to first base ok, but the Pirates are leery of letting him go on the base paths for fear that he will reinjure his leg. Dr. Roto has always believed that the best managers give an extra day or two of rest when they think a player is ready to get back into the lineup. Some might call this “old school” medicine, but experienced managers know how difficult it is to shake off injuries while playing a full 162-game major league schedule. In this case, Alvarez may benefit from not playing. Prior to heading to the DL, Alvarez was hitting a Mendoza-like .208 with only two HRs. Expected to be a source of power in the middle of the Pirates’ lineup, Alvarez has struck out 42 times in 155 ABs. These ratios are way too high and a stint in the minors might be exactly what he needs to get his timing back. The Pirates know that Alvarez is part of the long-term future in Pittsburgh. Right now, GM Neal Huntington realizes that Alvarez needs to get on track and healthy to provide the support for their young lineup. Give Alvarez time: he’s too good a natural hitter not to make an impact in the long run.
  • Dr. Roto’s Orders: Try to engineer a deal for Pedro Alvarez now. He is an important cog in the Pirates’ lineup and this stint in the minors may help him in the long run.

O’ Canada:
Recently I have made mention on both my podcast and on Sirius satellite radio about my man crush over Toronto Blue Jay minor league 3B,
  • Brett Lawrie. So far, he is enjoying a fantastic season at Triple-A Las Vegas : 223 AB .354 15 HR 49 RBI with 11 SB. In fact, Dr. Roto sees this young stud as a future all-star hitting machine. However, even thought the Blue Jays know that he is ready for the majors (and even with the awful Edwin Encarnacion and Jayson Nix manning the hot corner), the Blue Jays have hesitated to call him up because they do not want to start his Super Two status earlier than they need to. This cost saving idea almost burned the Blue Jays very badly this past week as Lawrie was hit by a pitch on his left hand. X-Rays called it a bruise; Dr. Roto calls it a break—for the Blue Jays! To have possibly lost their star minor leaguer just to save a few bucks would have been a public relations disaster up in Canada. Lawrie, who hails from British Columbia, is a potential star for the Jays, not only on the field, but for their fan base. Look for Lawrie to be called up no later than next week’s series at home against the Red Sox.
Dr. Roto’s Orders: Assume Crouching Tiger position and be ready to strike the second Lawrie’s name is on your league’s waiver wire.

  • Sayonara...

Dr. Roto is a Fantasy Sports Writer & On Air Personality. A subject of a UPN newscast for guiding numerous Fantasy Sports participants to league titles, Dr. Roto has answered over 10,000 Fantasy MLB, NFL and NBA questions over the past two decades. You may email Dr. Roto directly @ dr.roto@rotoexperts.com or follow him on Twitter @DrRoto



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