The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.
Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/

10 June 2011

2 Future Rookies: Week 10

PHOENIX - APRIL 12: Infielder Rafael Furcal#1...

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Future Rookies: Week 10

By Josh Shepardson

In perhaps the least surprising news of the fantasy baseball season, Rafael Furcal has navigated his way back to the disabled list. That news has opened the door for the promotion of a man most prospect sources rate as the top prospect in the Dodgers organization, and with it, a shout out here. Also featured this week is a Rangers prospect arm pitching well in Triple-A.
Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers, 23 years old

AB R HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS

2011 AAA 200 34 0 18 22 14 30 .315 .361 .370 .731

Monday night marked Dee Gordon’s debut for the Dodgers, when he entered the game in the ninth inning as a pinch runner and scored his first major league run. Flash’s kid will have an opportunity to see time while Rafael Furcal nurses his latest injury on the disabled list, just how much remains to be seen as Jamey Carroll has played effectively at short stop so far this year. Considering Gordon’s long expected long term role with the club, how much playing time he receives is likely entirely dependent upon how quickly he’s able to acclimate himself to the majors.
A burner, Gordon is capable of swiping bags in bunches, and if he’s able to see steady playing time, could prove an asset to stolen base starved owners in medium sized mixed-leagues using a middle infielder, or larger leagues. A total non-contributor in power categories, his value will be tied to him getting on base and getting the green light. While he was only moderately efficient stealing bags last year (53 stolen bases and 21 caught stealing), he’s seen that rate improve greatly this year nabbing 22 bases in 25 attempts. Playing a talent deprived position makes him a reasonable gamble even for owners that don’t need help up the middle, as he’ll likely have value on the trade market if he gets off to a hot start.
Neil Ramirez, SP, Texas Rangers, 22 years old...