The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


06 April 2011

Player Notes Under The Guise Of Team Power Rankings

Chipper Jones, a Major League Baseball player ...Image via Wikipedia
Power Rankings
CurrentTeamPrevious
1Yankees · Trends2
The hitters can only be counted on for seven runs a game, which means the pitchers have to step it up. ... Phil Hughes' fastball has been lacking its usual velocity, vigor, vim, zip and je ne sais quoi. ... Derek Jeter has yet to elevate a ball while hitting or spear one while fielding. ... Uh-oh: Brian Cashman cut the price tags off Pedro Feliciano and accidentally threw out the receipt. Panic level: Splendid.
2Braves · Trends3
Jason Heyward didn't homer in his second, third, fourth or fifth at-bats of 2011, justifying the team's decision to use him as a place-setter for Alex Gonzalez. ... Chipper Jones was spotted drinking a glass of ice water, leading many Brave-watchers to diagnose him with a bruised uvula. ... Fredi Gonzalez used Jonny Venters against the Nats' righty hitters and Craig Kimbrel against the lefties, suggesting he hasn't yet met either player in person. Panic level: Peachy.
3Phillies · Trends5
They came very, very close to losing on Friday afternoon. Very. ... Roy Halladay only lasted six innings in his first start, which speaks volumes about his carefree, whimsical approach to conditioning. ... Ryan Madson's ninth-inning allergies cannot be treated with Claritin, nor can his nervous tummy-wummy be calmed by Ginger Ale. ... Chase Utley still hasn't shed the walking boot, prosthetic joint or mechanical patellar stimulant. Panic level: Almighty.
4 Red Sox · Trends1
Never has a team collapsed beneath the weight of expectations like the 2011 Boston Red Sox. We shall remember them as baseball's all-time greatest tease. ... If Carl Crawford can't handle the spotlight, maybe he should've taken a job as a spotlight operator rather than as the guy who's being spotlighted in the spotlight. ... And, oh, that terrible, terrible pitching! The rotation should be rejiggered like so: Wakefield/Aceves/Dubront/Hill/Lester. The back end leans a little lefty, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Panic level: Brobdingnagian.
5White Sox · Trends6
All those superfluous extra-base hits have prevented the Sox from bunting, running and otherwise playing Ozzieball. ... Keeping only 11 pitchers on the roster limits the team's options (e.g., no room for a mop-up man/punching bag or a slinger who specializes in lefty-on-lefty crime).Panic level: Exquisite.
6Reds · Trends7
Now that Bronson Arroyo has pitched capably while afflicted with mono, Dusty Baker will run starters out to the mound even when they're plagued by major ailments: Travis Wood with nasal tapeworms, Aroldis Chapman with goutabetes, etc. ... Drew Stubbs got on base a mere seven times in 13 tries, calling into doubt his fitness as both a leadoff hitter and a man. ... Miguel Cairo was called upon to participate in two games. Panic level: Acute.
7Rangers · Trends14
I can't help but think that this team could use a little more offense. Maybe you shift Josh Hamilton back to center field and plug David Murphy in left? ... Michael Young's lateral movement during his second-base cameo suggested a walk-in refrigerator weighed down with sandbags and duct-taped to a tree. ... The Lewis/Wilson/Harrison/Ogando/Holland rotation is as deep and experienced as it is impervious to injury. Panic level: Nil.
8Dodgers · Trends9
Don Mattingly couldn't make it through his first weekend without ordering an unintentional balk or using his two replay challenges. ... Matt Kemp hit for power, ran hard down the first-base line and took non-leisurely routes to fly balls, but his facial expressions suggested mild consternation of some indeterminate sort. ... Despite the best efforts of team doctors, Casey Blake should return from the DL on Thursday or Friday. Panic level: Moody.
9Rockies · Trends11
The cancellation of Sunday's game means that the Rockies lack the grit to play in yucky-pie weather, and by extension the emotional fortitude needed to succeed in baseball and in life. ... The blister-and-cuticle follies of Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa leave the rotation feeling very vulnerable and alone in the world. ... The league has ruled that the team can't place Jim Tracy on the new seven-day concussion DL, not even if he bats Jose Lopez in the lineup's upper quadrant. Panic level: Upward-trending.
10Giants · Trends4
It's only a matter of time before the government condemns the current defensive outfield alignment. ... Bruce Bochy can't seem to decide whether Miguel Tejada should hit first or last, or whether Pablo Sandoval should hit at all. ... Unlike Peter Parker following his arachnid close encounter, Barry Zito did not emerge from his car accident with new, mysterious powers. Panic level: Horrible.
11 Athletics · Trends10
Based on his stony reaction to Coco Crisp's thrilling RBI triple, it's clear that Bob Geren's offseason charisma transplant was rejected by his body. ... Seven errors in three games means that fans won't entrust Oakland defenders with their fine crystal anytime soon. ... As of Monday afternoon, there wasn't a single "his name is Gio and he throws a lot of pitches" YouTube parody set to the tune of the Duran Duran classic. Somebody get on that. Panic level: Resplendent.
12Twins · Trends12
In its flagrant disregard for conventional strike-zone norms, Joe Nathan's first save since 2009 was positively Armando-Benitezian. ... Francisco Liriano can't command his fastball, slider, kids or lawn. ... There's more artificial lube coursing around Joe Mauer's knee than there is in the entire San Fernando Valley. Panic level: Prodigious.
13Rays · Trends8
Poor Evan Longoria. First he loses his assault weaponry, then he misses the season's first month. Somebody oughta go over there and cheer him up -- clad in Kevlar-proof armor, just in case. ... The free-range bullpen isn't off to much of a start, but there's still no reason to believe it'll be appreciably worse than, say, the Tigers' expensive one. Clip your coupons and save where you can. Panic level: Supreme.
14Orioles · Trends18
Following Monday's win, several Orioles flouted Buck Showalter's regulations involving proper gum disposal. He's yet to break those beautiful wild horses. ... Jeremy Guthrie is hospitalized with like a fever or the mumps or something. ... At this pace, the team will exhaust its 2011 allotment of quality starts by Passover. Panic level: Hellacious.
15 Blue Jays · Trends22
Travis Snider's benching against a lefty pitcher on Saturday suggests that Cito Gaston is still pulling the strings, likely while ensconced in either a Barcalounger or medically induced coma. ... If Kyle Drabek pitches as well in his next 522 starts as he did in his first 2011 outing, Cooperstown's gonna come a-courtin'. ... It's entirely possible that Jose Molina won't sustain his 54-homer pace. Panic level: Monstrous.
16Cardinals · Trends15
If Matt Holliday is indeed able to return before the weekend, he'll totally screw all those kids trying to milk a few extra recovery days out of their appendectomies. Won't somebody please think about the children? Separately, emergency appendectomies -- are there any other kind? ... It is worth noting that Jaime Garcia shut out the 2011 Padres, not the 1975 Reds. ... All those opening-day double plays suggest that Albert Pujols is truly, truly troubled by the prospect of playing in a city other than St. Louis. There's your emotional hammer to wield in upcoming negotiations, Mr. DeWitt. Panic level: Gobsmacked or Godsmacked, maybe both.
17Cubs · Trends19
Mike Quade wanted to run. Then Mike Quade got a good look at his players. Now Mike Quade is happy to go station-to-station. Mike Quade is not a stupid man. ... Twice this season, the starting second baseman has been Darwin Barney -- yeah, that Darwin Barney, not the flamboyant litigator. ... You can't teach instincts of the sort with which Starlin Castro has been blessed. You can, however, hope against hope that some of them magically teleport over to Alfonso Soriano, god willing. Panic level: Keen.
18Tigers · Trends17
Max Scherzer surrendered six whole runs to baseball's best offense on an afternoon where pop flies were blowing out of the park. He's dead to me now. ... If you need to illustrate the two different types of scary to your kids or a simple-minded adult, show them Brennan Boesch hitting against righty pitching and then Brennan Boesch hitting against lefty pitching. Learning is fun! Panic level: Intense.
19Padres · Trends20
Shoulder injuries are bad and Mat Latos has a shoulder injury. ... The PR team's efforts notwithstanding, #PerkyPadres still hasn't trended on Twitter. ... Their opening-day payroll ranked 27th out of 30 teams, up from 29th last season. Put that in your platinum-embossed pipe and smoke it, Adrian Gonzalez. Panic level: Blazing.
20Brewers · Trends13
The team wants to earn its way onto the scoreboard and will thus continue to refuse unintentional walks, it said in a statement. ... On Monday afternoon, the starting lineup included Yuniesky Betancourt, Carlos Gomez (batting second), Nyjer Morgan and Wil Nieves. This can be verified. ... Shaun Marcum returned from his shoulder agita with a hardy arm but with a child's understanding of the strike zone. Panic level: Soaring.
21Marlins · Trends16
All you need to know about the injury to Donnie Murphy, the Marlins' consolation prize of a third baseman, is that Emilio Bonifacio will play full-time in his absence. Adjust your Marlins prop bets accordingly. ... Losing an opening-weekend series to the Metsies is as bold a way to announce one's presence as parking on the front lawn. ... At his current pace of 11 base runners per 2.1 innings, Javier Vazquez will allow 1,047.6 runners to reach base over the course of a 200-inning season -- and, in doing so, pitch far more effectively than he did last year in New York. Panic level: Explosive.
22Mets · Trends21
In skipper Terry Collins' open letter to Met fans, he thanked them for browbeating the organization into releasing Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez. Then he asked them for two front-end starters, a pro-caliber second baseman and all the good vibrations they can spare. ... Over/under on more games played in 2011, Carlos Beltran or Chase Utley? I can't believe I'm saying this, but my money's on the Met. Panic level: Feverish.
23Mariners · Trends25
Based on the season's first weekend, Seattle's offensive game plan might be summarized thusly: "Run run run run run run run run run run run run run run" ... Chone Figgins attributed his opening-day power surge to an offseason spent lifting weight and a newfound commitment to monitoring his caloric intake, but he didn't rule out blind, stupid luck. ... Batting Brendan Ryan and Jack Wilson sixth and seventh, respectively, can only be viewed as a cry for help. Cue the interventionists. Panic level: Evolved.
24 Pirates · Trends28
Pedro Alvarez's four first-weekend RBI were taken as a sign of his Stargellian run-production might, rather than a commentary on the simple joys of hitting with runners on base. ... Since none of the team's 16 hits on Sunday were of the extra-base variety, first-base coach Luis Silverio has been asked to conduct remedial windmill drills. ... Garrett Jones hit just well enough over the weekend to make a case for more playing time, and Pirates fans to make a case for doing something else on game days.Panic level: Mountainous.
25Royals · Trends30
With two walk-off homers in their last three games, the Royals equaled their total for the 2,473 contests that preceded them. You'll have to take my word for it, as beaten-down Royals statisticians stopped keeping score in 1993. ... Mike Aviles would've aced his regular-season audition at third base if, instead of kicking grounders to and fro, he'd stuck to the score ofAnything Goes. Let this be a lesson to us all. Panic level: Impassioned.
26Angels · Trends23
What's happening in Japan is a disaster; Scott Kazmir is merely terrible at his job. Let's mind our descriptions. ... How many wins can a team milk out of two elite starters and fleet outfield defenders? We’re about to find out, and the first digit of the total is gonna be a 7. Panic level: Booming.
27Nationals · Trends24
Ian Desmond doesn't look uncomfortable in the leadoff spot so much as he looks confused, as if he were expecting a Tupperware Party and instead a baseball game broke out. ... The Nats are currently using Sean Burnett, a lefty whose fastball couldn't shatter a lamp, to close out games. A more effective carrot to dangle in front of Drew Storen would be the possibility, however slim, of someday playing for an organization that deploys its talent in accordance with the tenets of common sense. Follow that dream, Nats fans. Panic level: Torrid.
28Indians · Trends26
They were down 14-0 in the fourth inning of the season's first game. ... The debut of Felix Carmona's new sink-free sinker went pretty much exactly as expected. ... Six strikeouts in three games means that the days of overrating Shin-Soo Choo's underratedness may be coming to a close, or vice-versa. Panic level: Abundant.
29Diamondbacks · Trends27
Kirk Gibson has his players taking extra bases and barreling over anyone/anything in their path. Now all he has to do is teach them to pitch, catch, hit and field. ... In Stephen Drew's absence, Willie Bloomquist's name has thrice been inked onto the lineup card in the leadoff spot. Future historians will cite this as the precise moment when western intellectualism began its irreversible decline. ... Sources confirm that the clubhouse yelling match between Miguel Montero and Chris Young was not over a disputed interpretation of Absalom, Absalom!Panic level: Ripe.
30Astros · Trends29
It took a mere 93 plate appearances before the Astros drew their first unintentional walk, which says a little about the Phillie pitching and a little about the Astros' flippant approach to working the count. ... Brandon Lyon and his fellow straightballing relievers have prompted the team to equip Minute Maid Park vendors with smelling salts and heart monitors. Astros games: Come for the excitement, stay for the defibrillation. Panic level: Progressive.
For more from Larry Dobrow, check him out on Twitter: @LarryDobrow
Verbatim. CBS Sports.
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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The best way to convince a fool that he is wrong is to let him have his own way.