The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


06 April 2011

Rotisserie Baseball's High 5 - Low 5 - Most Scouted 5

ANAHEIM, CA - MAY 12: Howard Kendrick #47 of ...Image by Getty Images via @daylife

The high five (Five most added players in fantasy)

1. RP Jose Contreras, PHI
2. 1B Brandon Belt, SF
3. SP Kyle Drabek, TOR
4. C J.P. Arencibia, TOR
5. SP Zach Britton, BAL
A new closer in Philly and four rookies top the most-added list this week. The rookies will prove to be far less consistent, but they do have considerable upside, particularly that Blue Jays pair for fantasy owners. Arencibia has 20-homer pop at a thin position and Drabek has 15-win talent for a team that apparently doesn't miss hitting guru Cito Gaston thus far.

The low five (Five most dropped players in fantasy)

1. 2B Eric Young, COL
2. SP Brett Cecil, TOR
3. RP Kevin Slowey, MIN
4. SP Brian Matusz, BAL
5. RP Brad Lidge, PHI
Lidge's shoulder woes look significant right now, which is also why everyone is jumping on Contreras. Ryan Madson is going to remain the setup man for now, for as long as Contreras can hold down the saves. Contreras might not give Madson a sniff.

The top view-makers (Five most scouted players in fantasy)

1. SP Matt Harrison, TEX
2. SP Zach Britton, BAL
3. C Ryan Hanigan, CIN
4. OF Brennan Boesch, DET
5. 2B Howard Kendrick, LAA
Britton had the outstanding debut, but Harrison and Boesch represent a bit of the forgotten. They are two pretty good overlooked sophomore types that people probably shouldn't have slept on. They are going to be popular pickups in mixed leagues for good reasons.
Eric Mack writes fantasy for SI.com.
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