The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


19 April 2011

The Next Closer?


How To Identify the Next New Closer

Metsstitches_tiny by Eno Sarris
Out from the ether and back again?
Jeff Roberson -
Out from the ether and back again?

We're all looking for closers, at least in the leagues that score saves. And since we're all looking, we need to stay ahead of the curve - how many times have you frantically hit the waiver wire just to find out that newly minted closer has been owned for a week? If you've got a spot on the end of your bench, there is perhaps no better way to fill it than with a closer-in-waiting.
Hopefully these guidelines will help you find those closers of the near future.
1) Look for a struggling closer.
This shouldn't be that hard. Joe Nathan was obviously having a tough time, but Ryan Franklin is blowing saves left and right, too. One piece of advice, though, is to identify closers that should be struggling but aren't yet. For example, Brandon Lyon has an ERA over five and has looked shaky in half of his six games so far. And! Jonathan Broxton may have not blown a save yet, but he has three strikeouts in his first seven appearances. He hasn't even recovered last year's lower radar gun numbers, either.
Star-divide
2) Look for great rates, paired with strong ratios.
Sometimes you can't get both...
Click here for the rest of this article.
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1 comment:

Unknown said...

Did You catch what Orel and Bobby said about the way Managers and Pitching Coaches cleave Bullpens into 2 distinct divisions when it comes to making a pitching change? Ahead and Behind In The Game!!

April 19, 2011 at 7:41 AM

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