The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


19 April 2011

Waiting to add, drop or trade will only hurt your team

Dodgers Rafael Furcal leads off base as White ...Image via Wikipedia
Now that you know time is wasting and you need to take action, let’s look at some players that are worthy of being dropped and ones to target via trade or waiver pickups.

Fold ‘Em – Move on as these players will not help your team
Rafael Furcal SS, LAD – If you have a DL spot open, feel free to hang on to him. However, if someone like Tsuyoshi Nishioka or Jason Bay already occupies it, cut bait. Whether or not it was due to frustration, Furcal suggested he might retire than try to return from this injury. He has struggled to stay healthy in two of the past three years and was hitting just .192 before being hurt.
Jose Lopez 2B/3B, COL – Those who drafted Lopez were counting on his returning to pre-2010 productivity. Even then, Lopez’s numbers were not spectacular – simply more valuable since he is a second baseman. Lopez was already going to have Ty Wigginton taking some time away. Now Lopez is off to a terrible start hitting just .184, and Jonathan Herrera is hotter than the sun. Subpar numbers and reduced playing time will not help your team.
Freddie Freeman 1B, ATL – Freeman...
Click here for remainder of list.

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