The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


11 March 2012

Predictive Value Of Roto Categories Using Correlations Over A Three Year Period

ANAHEIM, CA - JULY 1: Shortstop Dee Gordon #9 ...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeKANSAS CITY, MO - JUNE 24: Alex Gordon #4 of ...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeDENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 11: Eric Young Jr. #1 ...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeLOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 15: Jamey Carroll #14 o...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeCLEVELAND, OH - AUGUST 24: Ichiro Suzuki #51 o...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeSEATTLE - JULY 01: Ichiro Suzuki #51 of the S...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeLOS ANGELES - MAY 2: Matt Kemp #27 of the Los...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeLOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 16: Juan Rivera #3...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeNEW YORK, NY - JUNE 24: A.J. Burnett #34 of t...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 31: Andres Torres #56...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeDENVER, CO - AUGUST 23: Carlos Gonzalez #5 of...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeCLEVELAND, OH - JUNE 20: Carlos Gonzalez #5 o...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeCLEVELAND, OH - AUGUST 23: Second baseman Dust...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeANAHEIM, CA - JUNE 12: Alcides Escobar #2 of ...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeKANSAS CITY, MO - JUNE 3: Ben Revere #11 of th...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeLOS ANGELES - MAY 15: Jamey Carroll #14 of the...Image by Getty Images via @daylifePHOENIX, AZ - APRIL 09: Manager Dusty Baker o...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeKANSAS CITY, MO - JUNE 5: Alexi Casilla #12 o...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeBabe RuthBabe Ruth (Photo credit: carloscappaticci)BASEBALL Pitcher of the Week - Apr. 18-24, 2011BASEBALL Pitcher of the Week - Apr. 18-24, 2011 (Photo credit: Big West Conference)LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 26: Dee Gordon #9 of t...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeRuth knocked outImage via Wikipediaja: 帝国ホテル滞在中に日本の野球少年と交流するベーブ・ルース。 en: Babe Rut...Image via WikipediaWillie McCovey attempts to tag Cincinnati Reds...Image via WikipediaEnglish: Retired Player #9Image via WikipediaLOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 22: Matt Kemp #27 of ...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeLOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 02: Matt Kemp #27 of th...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeBabe Ruth, The Great Bambino, with future U.S....Image via WikipediaDwight Gooden at Candlestick Park in San Franc...Image via WikipediaEnglish: Dwight GoodenImage via WikipediaBabe Ruth pitching with Boston Red Sox, Comins...Image via Wikipediastolen basestolen base (Photo credit: WhatDaveSees)vizquel steals thirdvizquel steals third (Photo credit: artolog)stolen basestolen base (Photo credit: artolog)ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 31: Andres Torres #56...Image by Getty Images via @daylife[Hat Tip to Fantistics Fantasy Baseball]


H Category Correlation
BA 23%
Runs 38%
HR 62%
RBI 52%
SB 72%
AB 35%
Roto$ 43%
TB 39%
BB 63%
SO 65%
CS 57%
SLG 47%
SO/AB 85%
OBA 35%
OPS 42%
H 36%
2B 32%
3B 46%
P Category Correlation
WHIP 45%
ERA 35%
K 68%
IP 54%
W 40%
S 42%
GS 51%
QS 58%
L 35%
HR Allowed 41%
BB 46%
H 52%
Roto$ 47%
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