The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


22 February 2012

Vegas over/under on MLB Team WIns in 2012

English: 3 Gold StarsImage via WikipediaEnglish: Large BonfireImage via WikipediaSAN FRANCISCO, CA - SEPTEMBER 11: Tony Gwynn #...Image by Getty Images via @daylifeEnglish: Baseball with clock to represent a &q...Image via Wikipedia
95.5 Phila. 
94 Detroit 
94 Texas 
93 New York 
89.5 Los Angeles 
87.5 Tampa Bay 
87.5 Boston 
87.5 San Fran. 
87 Cincinnati 
87 St. Louis 
85.5 Atlanta 
84.5 Arizona 
82.5 Miami 
81.5 Toronto 
81.5 Milwaukee [before success of Braun's appeal]
81.5 Colorado 
81.5 Los Angeles 
81 Wash. 
78.5 Kansas City 
77.5 Chicago 
75.5 Cleveland 
74.5 New York 
74 Minnesota 
73.5 Chicago 
73 Pittsburgh 
73 Oakland 
72.5 Seattle 
71 Baltimore 
70.5 San Diego 
62.5 Houston 
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