The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


11 September 2011

Stand Pat or Attempt Transactions? For What Purpose?

NEW YORK - MAY 12:  Chipper Jones #10 of the A...Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Big 26 Standings as of 10 September 2011, provided Our Auction Day Rosters Had Been FROZEN:
Team Name R HR RBI SB AVG PA W SV ERA SO IP HW/9 TOTAL
Black Sox 7 7 7 4 6 9 9 7 8 8 9 5 86
Silver King ironPigs 10 8 8 9 10 7 6 4 2 6 7 4 81
Mendoza Lions 3 3 2 10 1 2 10 5 9 10 10 9 74
Brown Dodgers 9 10 10 5 9 10 3 8 3 2 3 1 73
River Rats 2 2 5 3 3 6 8 10 7 9 8 10 73
The Spyders 8 9 9 6 8 8 4 2 5 4 6 3 72
Mookie & The Wilsons 4 6 6 2 4 4 2 9 10 3 2 7 59
Half -n- Half 5 5 4 8 2 3 5 1 4 7 5 8 57
Head Hawks 1 1 1 7 7 1 7 6 1 5 4 2 43
The Beltway Braves 6 4 3 1 5 5 1 3 6 1 1 6 42
ACTUAL STANDINGS through 09.10.11
Team Name R HR RBI SB AVG PA W SV ERA SO IP HW/9 TOTAL
Silver King ironPigs 10 9 9 8.5 10 10 8 6 4 9 6 4 93.5
Mendoza Lions 7 7 7 8.5 2 7 10 3 9 10 10 8 88.5
Brown Dodgers 9 10 10 4 8 9 3 9 5 2 4 5 78
Black Sox 6 5 6 6 4 8 9 5 7 7 7 6 76
The Spyders 8 8 8 5 9 5 6 2 2 6 9 2 70
Head Hawks 5 2 4 10 7 6 4.5 8 1 4 5 1 57.5
Mookie & The Wilsons 3 6 5 3 5 3 1 7 10 3 2 7 55
Half -n- Half 4 4 3 7 1 4 7 1 3 8 8 3 53
River Rats 1 1 2 2 3 2 4.5 10 8 5 3 10 51.5
The Beltway Braves 2 3 1 1 6 1 2 4 6 1 1 9 37



Four of the top 5 teams have improved their points production by taking advantage of making  many natural transactions and exception moves. The lone exception hasn't made a move in at least a month.

The Big 26 allows as many natural moves as you like once a week, plus 2 Exception replacements and one successful waiver claim each week. A waiver claim being exactly what it is in The Show, namely claiming a player waived the previous week by another team.
There is no bench or Farm System.
 Note that the team that has improved the most, the Head Hawks, is also among the leaders in number of transactions made thus far.
Ours is a zero sum game. Every point gained or lost by a single team means other teams must have experienced the opposite.

Okay, so it's fun to move players around like baseball cards, but it can also improve your bottom line, if, and only if, you're willing to take the chance of also making a mistake.

Fun with reward or punishment.

Maybe Roto is more like life than we thought.



Enhanced by Zemanta Enhanced by ZemantaEvery team in the first division after all theese

1 comment:

Tictock_bbd said...

The problem is owners get distracted, frustrated, or get their feelings hurt by other owners. Most fantasy owners act like real baseball owners. There will be always teams who want to win and always teams who are just glad to have a team.