108 DOUBLE STITCHES: Second Half Impact Players

The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.
Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/

14 July 2011

Second Half Impact Players

Image via Wikipediaby Warren 'Dan' Bogard

First off – I hope everybody is well rested from some Independence Day festivities and the All-Star Break. I know I am giddy for the second half of the fantasy baseball season.

Every year, some players get off to a slow start. Some players get hurt and come back strong after the break. Some players get called up and deliver. Let’s take a look at five players you shouldn’t forget about in the second half of 2011.

Allen Craig, IF/OF (6% owned*)

Craig is trying to earn an everyday job in the Cardinals' lineup. He looked like he was on the right track earlier this year, as he has posted 16 R, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 4 SB, and a whopping .336 BA over 107 AB’s. Most of us will gladly take production like that at our 2B position. Just as Al was proving his merit, he fractured his knee cap. Ouch. Now he’s on the mend, and he will soon work through his rehab assignment. While he is already 26, Craig knocked 40 HR and posted a .928 OPS over his last two seasons in AAA. He’s ready to be owned on a lot more than 1 in 20 fantasy leagues.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka, 2B, SS (13% owned*)

I cringed when I saw Nick Swisher take out Nishioka to break up a double play on April 7, resulting in lower leg fractures for the Twins infielder. I’ve suffered an injury nearly identical to that on the field, and recovery is no fun. I also had high expectations for Tsuyoshi this year, so I knew I would need to retool at the time in a few of my leagues. So far Nishi’s 9 R, 7 RBI, .227 BA, and 2 SB (against 3 CS) have been underwhelming. Still, this was one of the best hitters in Japan last year, and he has the potential to hit for a high batting average. Keep an eye on him. Nishioka has delivered a .290 BA over 31 AB in July. His K’s are down, and his BB’s are up. I still expect impactful production from this player.

Javier Vazquez, SP (26% owned*)

How bad has Vazquez been this year? He’s posted a 5.23 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9. That’s bad. But don’t forget about this guy. Over the last month, he’s delivered a 1.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 6.33 K/BB – all huge improvements from early June. The effort over the last month has brought his ERA down from 7.09. If the command of the strike zone sticks, expect Vazquez to perform more like he did in 2009 for the Braves, and less like he did for the Yankees in 2010. The 34 year-old is a free agent at the end of this year, so look for Vazquez to do some work in the second half.

Ike Davis, 1B (45% owned*)

Davis raked in his first 129 AB’s this year for the Mets, knocking 7 HR’s and posting a .925 OPS. On May 10 he injured his leg and he has been on the DL ever since. Early news was that his injury was not healing properly, and that he may require season-ending surgery. While it’s still possible that this worse case has not been avoided, Ike is still targeting an August return. While there are many questions about the Mets line-up as the trade deadline approaches, Davis is still an elite bat that is available in more than half of leagues. He’s exactly the kind of player I want to fill out my roster going into head-to-head playoffs. He will be re-evaluated in three weeks after given a cortisone shot today. If surgery isn't necessary, snatch him up for the stretch run.

Matt Moore, SP (1% owned*)

Let’s have some fun with this last one. I’m not even sure Matt Moore will see the show this year. If he does get the call, he may not even start. At 22 years old, Moore is currently in AA, but he’s already in his fifth minor league season. That means Tampa Bay needs to get him on their 40-man roster in the near future to avoid Rule 5 poaching. Why would anybody be interested in Moore? He’s a lefty that throws high-nineties heat. Over 96.2 innings and 17 starts this year in AA, he’s struck out 125 batters. That’s a cool 11.6 K/9. What are his minor league ERA and WHIP in 2011, you ask? 2.14 and 0.90, respectively. He’s dealin’, and he’s exactly the kind of sneaky late August call-up that could give your team an edge as fantasy playoffs heat up. Keep an eye on the MLBDepthCharts Twitter feed to get the scoop on if Moore will get the call.