108 DOUBLE STITCHES: UPON FURTHER EXAMINATION

The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.
Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/

26 April 2011

UPON FURTHER EXAMINATION

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

Jason Bay was activated on April 21 and started in left field for the Mets. With a record of 5-13, the Mets desperately need Bay to interject some pop into the lineup. However, the bigger question is if Bay is the man for the role? When Bay came to the Mets, he signed a four-year/$63 million dollar deal with the expectation that he would bring his five-tool skill set to Citi Field. In Bay’s first season with the Mets, he had just six HR and 47 RBI in 348 at-bats over 95 games and never seemed comfortable at the plate. If you look at the numbers, the Mets paid $2.625 million per Bay home run last year! The Mets are 1-9 in their last 10 games and look totally lost on the field. Can Bay rediscover his ability and help the Mets and Fantasy owners alike? Dr. Roto has seen nothing to show that Bay will regain the skills that saw him hit 36 HR in 2009. That said, once a player has skills, he doesn’t necessarily lose them in one year. Fantasy owners should expect to see Bay land somewhere in the middle of his stellar 2009 and wretched 2010 numbers. Sadly, the Mets would take 16 HR and 75 RBI from Bay the rest of the year, as it would be an improvement over the light hitting Willie Harris. But, Dr. Roto sees some light at the end of the tunnel for the Mets. His name is Daniel Murphy. Murphy is a butcher in the field, but is capable of providing a spark at the plate by getting solid ABs and showing some power/speed. Murphy’s 2009 season saw him hit 12 HR and knock in 63 RBI. A combo of Bay/Murphy might be exactly what the Dr. ordered to change the Mets fortunes in 2011.
Dr. Roto’s Orders: Watch Bay closely and pick up Murphy if he is available in your league.

Click here for the possible effect of other player injuries.