The Law of Truly Large Numbers

The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. The point is that truly rare events, say events that occur only once in a million [as the mathematician Littlewood (1953) required for an event to be surprising] are bound to be plentiful in a population of 250 million people. If a coincidence occurs to one person in a million each day, then we expect 250 occurrences a day and close to 100,000 such occurrences a year.

Going from a year to a lifetime and from the population of the United States to that of the world (5 billion at this writing), we can be absolutely sure that we will see incredibly remarkable events. When such events occur, they are often noted and recorded. If they happen to us or someone we know, it is hard to escape that spooky feeling.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/05/methods-for-studying-coincidences/


05 January 2011

Oh, how the prospect mavens' tune has changed to laud the collection of talent Dayton Moore has gathered.

Remember, 2011 isn’t the year the Royals are planning on graduating the majority of their farm system – that’s 2012.
Players of Interest for 2011
Hitters
  • #4 Mike Moustakas | 3B | D.o.B: 9-11-88 | Stats (AA/AAA): .322/.369/.630 | 484 AB | 77 XBH | 36 Hr | .308 ISO | 2/1 SB/CS | 67:34 K:BB | .342 BABIP (AA); .271 BABIP (AAA)
Moustakas had a monster year hitting .347/.413/.687 at Double-A in 259 at-bats and receiving a midseason promotion to Triple-A where he hit .293/.314/.564 in 225 at-bats. Although he struggles taking many walks due to an aggressive hitting philosophy, Mike “The Moose” Moustakas has all the tools to become a fantasy stud, ahem, a great baseball player but without stellar defense. To quote my 2009 Review, “[re: Sophomore Slump] John Sickels did pointed out that his Home/Road splits were the main culprit to his stats (Home: .208/.269/.381 Road: .292/.331/.473) … Another concern a few scouts have risen is his body is transforming into Mr. Moobs (Billy Butler). From a fantasy perspective, he’ll have to hit well next year to stay on the fast track to the majors. This doesn’t necessarily mean 30 homers with a .350/.425/.550 slash line. However, we will want to see an improvement upon his nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio … I am still on his bandwagon, but I am teetering on the edge of the his drivers seat or bailing out.” I guess I was as fickle as Baseball America, but his turnaround sure happened. ETA: June 2011 at the latest. This will be another Evan Longoria type wait.
  • #5 Eric Hosmer | 1B | D.o.B: 10-24-89 | Stasts (A+/AA): .338/.406/.571 | 520 AB | 72 XBH | 20 Hr | .233 ISO | 14/2 SB/CS | 66:59 K:BB | .382 BABIP (A+); .310 BABIP (AA)
Hosmer actually has more home run potential than Moustakas, however, at a position where it’s more expected than an added benefit. His swing is considered “pure enough that it should produce good average.” He also plays average defense. Supposedly he was having eye issues, and received Lasik. His stat lines show that it helped. In split-time between High-A and Double-A Hosmer showed great power (.233 ISO), although was aided greatly by a high BABIP at High-A (.382) where he played 60 percent of the season (325 AB). Nevertheless, don’t expect Moore to be calling Hosmer up early. Dayton Moore has been quoted of saying that Hosmer will receive a full season at Triple-A for some “seasoning.” Yeah, the same way all other prospects need to be held back until June to save Super-2 status. A good move for the team to stay competitive in the long(er) run.


Pitchers
  • #1 Mike Montgomery | LHP | D.o.B: 7-1-89 | Stats (A+/AA): 8.5 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 93 IP | 2.61 ERA | 1.01 FIP (A+); 3.97 FIP (AA) | 1.15 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 7.4 H/9 | .277 BABIP (A+); .302 BABIP (AA)
According to Baseball America, “[Montgomery is] close to a complete package.” Fastball is a plus pitch that sits between 90 to 92 mph and tops out at 95 mph. Lanky frame could add strength and fastball velocity. Throws a curveball that grades as above-average and change-up flashes plus potential. Mechanically sound. Wasn’t overly lucky at Double-A (.302 BABIP) where the majority of his pitching happened (59 2/3 IP). If he continues his success, Montgomery may have a mid-season call-up


Honorable Mention
Hitters
  • #3 William Myers | C | D.o.B: 12-10-90 | Stats (A/A+): .315/.429/.506 | 447 AB | 54 XBH | 14 Hr | .191 ISO | 12/2 SB/CS | 94:85 K:BB | .335 BABIP (A); .411 BABIP (A+)
Excellent raw power and a smooth swing that should allow him to hit for average and power. Scouts compare him to Jayson Werth, a pseudo-catcher in the minors but possessing a body that dictates a position switch. Seems to be the new Jesus Montero. The steals are deceptive as he stole 10 bases at Single-A but isn’t overly fast. His slash line is evenly split between the two levels this year. Don’t expect to see Myers in the majors until 2012.

Pitchers
  • #7 John Lamb | LHP | D.o.B: 7-10-90 | Stats (A/A+/AA): 9.7 K/9 | 2.7 BB/9 | 147 2/3 IP | 2.38 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 7.4 H/9
The success of John Lamb is one of the reasons why the Royals are considered to have a stud farm system (along with the other stud names previously mentioned). He throws a 88 to 91 MPH fastball that can tough 94 MPH with a deceptive delivery, a curveball and a changeup. Scouts praise his veteran like demeanor. Here is a break down of his BABIP and FIP this year: BABIP (.256 at Low-A; .321 at High-A+; .343 at Double-A); FIP (3.20 at Low-A; 1.69 at High-A+; 3.87 at Double-A). As you can see, he pitched well all year. 2012 should be this ETA.

  • #2 Aaron Crow | RHP | D.o.B: 11-11-86 | Stats (A+/AA): 7.9 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 163 1/3 IP | 5.73 ERA | 3.04 FIP (A+); 4.74 FIP (AA) | 1.51 WHIP | 1.0 Hr/9 | 10 H/9 | .388 BABIP (A+); .322 BABIP (AA)
Crow struggled, at least statistically, during his first year in professional baseball. He strikeout rates left a lot to be desired and was far too hittable (10.0 H/9). His FIPs indicate that he pitched better than his ERA would initially state, but statistically, Crow was a disappointment. He throws a 91 to 94 MPH fastball with good movement that induces a fair amount of groundballs – potentially with a better defense, his number will look better. Crow also throws a slider with above-average potential and fringe-average changeup. I would expect him to see the majors in 2012 – just like the majority of the Royals top prospects.

  • #8 Danny Duffy | LHP | D.o.B: 12-21-88 | Stats (R/A+/AA): 10.0 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 62 1/3 IP | 2.74 ERA | 4.20 FIP (A+); 2.80 FIP (AA) | 1.11 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 7.5 H/9 | .218 BABIP (A+); .331 BABIP (AA)
Duffy nearly quit baseball – he left the team for about a month in March and April. Upon his return, Duffy continued to throw his 88 to 92 MPH fastball with good downward movement, a changeup that he uses deceptively and his slow-arching curveball as an out-pitch with success. The majority of his innings happened between High-A and Double-A (14 IP and 39 IP respectively). He projects to be a number three pitcher. Duffy has a lot of potential, but is probably the further from any of the pitchers mentioned so far. A mid-season call up in 2012 would see to be appropriate, but a 2011 September call up could happen to test him – like all these prospects could use to see if 2012 will be as big as people believe.

Click Here For Entire Article and List of KCR Prospects.
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